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Tài liệu Tín dụng vi mô và mức sống của nông hộ ở việt nam

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM Major: Development Economics Code: 9310105 PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS ACADEMIC ADVISORS 1. Dr. PHAM KHANH NAM 2. Assoc. Prof. Dr. NGUYEN HUU DUNG HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 i COMMITMENTS I hereby declare that this dissertation is my own work and it has not been previously submitted for a degree elsewhere. While my work contains information from works done by other authors, all these references have been explicitly cited. To the best of my knowledge, I would like to certify that the above statements are true. The dissertation has been done under the supervision of Dr. Pham Khanh Nam and Assoc.Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huu Dung, the University of Economics, Hochiminh City. This work was also done under the advice of Assoc. Prof. Dr. Katsuhiro Saito, the University of Tokyo during my fellowship period granted by the World Bank Robert S. McNamara at the University of Tokyo, Japan. Pham Tien Thanh ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my academic supervisors, reviewers, colleagues, family and friends for their support during the time I conduct my Ph.D. dissertation. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS COMMITMENTS ........................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ..........................................................................................ii TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... iii ABBREVIATIONS................................................................................................. viii LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1. Backgrounds ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Research problems ............................................................................................ 3 1.2.1. Accessibility to microcredit ........................................................................ 3 1.2.2. Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties.................................. 4 1.2.3. Impact of microcredit on households’ welfare ........................................... 6 1.2.4. Microcredit and health shock ...................................................................... 8 1.3. Research objectives ........................................................................................... 9 1.4. Scopes of research ............................................................................................. 9 1.5. Research data .................................................................................................. 10 1.6. Research methods............................................................................................ 10 1.6.1. Quantitative methods ................................................................................ 10 1.6.2. Qualitative methods .................................................................................. 11 1.7. Contribution of the research ............................................................................ 11 1.7.1. Theoretical contributions .......................................................................... 11 1.7.2. Practical contributions .............................................................................. 12 1.8. Organization of the research ........................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................ 14 2.1. Overview of microcredit ................................................................................. 14 2.1.1. Some definitions ....................................................................................... 14 2.2.2. Characteristics of microcredit ................................................................... 15 2.2. Theory ............................................................................................................. 16 iv 2.2.1. Overview of rural credit market ................................................................ 16 2.2.2. Asymmetric information ........................................................................... 19 2.2.3. Theories on accessibility to credit ............................................................ 21 2.2.3.1. Theory of Choice (Demand for Credit) .............................................22 2.2.3.2. Theory of Credit Rationing ................................................................23 2.2.4. Theoretical framework of outreach of microcredit ................................... 26 2.2.5. Farm household model under credit constraint......................................... 27 2.2.5.1. Producer Problem ...............................................................................28 2.2.5.2. Consumer Problem.............................................................................28 2.2.5.3. Worker Problem .................................................................................29 2.2.5.4. Farm Household Model with Credit ..................................................30 2.3. Empirical studies ............................................................................................. 31 2.3.1 Determinants of rural households’ accessibility to microcredit ................ 31 2.3.2. Impact of microcredit on adoption of the improved rice varieties ........... 36 2.3.3. Impact of microcredit on living standard .................................................. 38 2.3.1. Empirical studies in the world ..............................................................39 2.3.2. Empirical studies in Vietnam ................................................................40 2.3.4. Impact of health shocks and role of microcredit....................................... 43 2.3.4.1. Impacts of health shocks ....................................................................43 2.3.4.2. Strategies to cope with Health Shocks and Role of Microcredit .......44 2.4. Definitions of welfare ..................................................................................... 47 2.5. Logical framework of impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare .............. 48 CHAPTER 3 – OVERVIEW OF MICROCREDIT ................................................. 51 3.1. Microcredit in the world ................................................................................. 51 3.2. Microcredit in rural Vietnam .......................................................................... 53 3.2.1. Microcredit providers................................................................................ 53 3.2.2. Credit activities and clients ....................................................................... 58 3.2.3. Poverty reduction role of microcredit ....................................................... 60 v CHAPTER 4 – DETERMINANTS OF ACCESSIBILITY TO MICROCREDIT ... 61 4.1. Research method ............................................................................................. 61 4.1.1. Estimation strategy.................................................................................... 62 4.1.2. Selection of variables ................................................................................ 65 4.1.2.1. Dependent variable ............................................................................65 4.1.2.2. Explanatory Variables ........................................................................65 4.1.3. Research hypotheses ................................................................................. 67 4.2. Research data .................................................................................................. 69 4.2.1. Data source ................................................................................................... 69 4.2.2. Research sample ........................................................................................... 70 4.2.3. Descriptive statistics..................................................................................... 70 4.3. Results and discussions ................................................................................... 73 CHAPTER 5 – MICROCREDIT AND ADOPTION OF IMPROVED RICE VARIETIES .............................................................................................................. 81 5.1. Research method ............................................................................................. 81 5.1.1. Estimation strategy.................................................................................... 81 5.1.2. Selection of variables ................................................................................ 85 5.1.2.1. Dependent variables ...........................................................................85 5.1.2.2. Independent variables .......................................................................86 5.1.3. Research hypotheses ................................................................................. 87 5.2. Research data .................................................................................................. 87 5.2.1. Data source ................................................................................................... 87 5.2.2. Research sample ........................................................................................... 87 5.2.3. Descriptive statistics..................................................................................... 88 5.3. Results and discussions ................................................................................... 90 CHAPTER 6 – IMPACT EVALUATION OF MICROCREDIT ON WELFARE 102 6.1. Research method ........................................................................................... 102 6.1.1. Estimation strategy.................................................................................. 102 6.1.1.1. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) ..................................................102 vi 6.1.1.2. Difference in Difference (DID) .......................................................103 6.1.1.3. PSM-DID .........................................................................................104 6.1.2. Selection of variables .............................................................................. 105 6.1.2.1. Microcredit variable .........................................................................105 6.1.2.2. Variables for calculation of propensity score ..................................106 6.1.2.3. Welfare variables .............................................................................106 6.1.3. Research hypotheses ............................................................................... 107 6.2. Research data ................................................................................................ 108 6.2.1. Data source .............................................................................................. 108 6.2.2. Research sample...................................................................................... 108 6.2.3. Descriptive statistics ............................................................................... 109 6.3. Results and discussions ................................................................................. 109 6.3.1. Propensity score and balancing test ....................................................... 109 6.3.2. Average impact of microcredit program ................................................. 111 CHAPTER 7 – ROLE OF MICROCREDIT IN MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF HEALTH SHOCKS ................................................................................................ 118 7.1. Research method ........................................................................................... 118 7.1.1. Estimation strategy.................................................................................. 118 7.1.2. Selection of variable ............................................................................... 120 7.1.2.1. Dependent variables ........................................................................120 7.1.2.2. Health shocks variables ....................................................................120 7.1.2.3. Microcredit variable .........................................................................121 7.1.2.4. Other control (explanatory) variables ..............................................122 7.1.3. Research hypotheses ............................................................................... 123 7.2. Research data ................................................................................................ 123 7.2.1. Data source ................................................................................................. 123 7.2.2. Research sample ......................................................................................... 124 7.2.3. Descriptive statistics................................................................................... 124 7.3. Results and discussions ................................................................................. 126 vii 7.3.1. Are health shocks unanticipated? ........................................................... 126 7.3.2. First stage results using instrumental variables ...................................... 127 7.3.3. Illness/ Disease/ Injury of working-age members (HS1W) .................... 130 7.3.4. Illness/ Disease/ Injury of any members (HS1A) ................................... 133 CHAPTER 8 – CONCLUSIONS............................................................................ 135 8.1. Objective 1: Determinants of accessibility o microcredit ............................. 135 8.1.1. Summary ................................................................................................. 135 8.1.2. Policy implications................................................................................. 136 8.1.3. Limitations and further studies .............................................................. 138 8.2. Objective 2: Microcredit and adoption of improved varieties ...................... 139 8.1.1. Summary ................................................................................................. 139 8.2.2. Policy implications................................................................................. 140 8.2.3. Limitations and further studies .............................................................. 141 8.3. Objective 3: Impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare ........................... 142 8.3.1. Summary ................................................................................................. 142 8.3.2. Policy implications................................................................................. 143 8.3.3. Limitations and further studies .............................................................. 144 8.4. Objective 4: Role of microcredit in mitigating the effects of health shocks 145 8.4.1. Summary ................................................................................................. 145 8.4.2. Policy implications................................................................................. 146 8.4.3. Limitations and further studies .............................................................. 146 REFERENCE .......................................................................................................... 147 Reference in the word .......................................................................................... 147 Reference in Vietnam ........................................................................................... 165 Websites ............................................................................................................... 169 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................ 171 viii ABBREVIATIONS Abbr Meanings MF Microfinance MFIs Microfinance Institutions PCFs People’s Credit Funds ROSCAs Rotating Savings Credit Associations VBSP Vietnam Bank for Social Policies VBARD Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development VPSC Postal Savings Company ix LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 - Welfare indicators ...................................................................................47 Table 3.1 - Microcredit trend in the world ................................................................52 Table 3.2 - Top 10 microcredit providers in the world .............................................52 Table 3.3 - Microcredit providers in Vietnam ..........................................................59 Table 3.4 - Living standards of clients before and after borrowing. .........................60 Table 4.1 - Variables for analysis of determinants of accessibility to microcredit...67 Table 4.2 – Description of loans obtained ................................................................71 Table 4.3 - Characteristics of variables for analysis of determinants of accessibility to microcredit ............................................................................................................72 Table 4.4 - Estimated results of determinants of accessibility to microcredit – Whole sample........................................................................................................................75 Table 4.5 - Estimated results of determinants of accessibility to microcredit – Nonpoor sample ...............................................................................................................79 Table 4.6 - Estimated results of determinants of accessibility to microcredit – Poor sample........................................................................................................................80 Table 5.1 - Variables used for analyzing impact of microcredit on adoption...........86 Table 5.2 - Characteristics of adoption variables ......................................................88 Table 5.3 - Characteristics of variables that affect adopting decision ......................89 Table 5.4 - Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties - IV 2SLS using 3 IVs .............................................................................................................................91 Table 5.5 - Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties - IV 2SLS using 1 IV ...............................................................................................................................91 Table 5.6 - Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties .............................93 Table 5.7 - Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties – Poor and nonpoor sample .............................................................................................................101 Table 5.8 - Impact of microcredit on other investment activities ...........................101 Table 6.1 - Definition of welfare variables .............................................................107 Table 6.2 - Probit estimations for calculation of propensity score .........................110 x Table 6.3 – Balancing test .......................................................................................111 Table 6.4 - Impact of microcredit on income and total output value ......................112 Table 6.5 - Impact of microcredit on food expenditure ..........................................116 Table 6.6 - Impact of microcredit on accumulation of durable assets ....................117 Table 7.1 - Types of health shock ...........................................................................121 Table 7.2 - Microcredit borrowed by households ...................................................122 Table 7.3 - Descriptive statistics of variables for used analysis of health shocks ..125 Table 7.4 - Unanticipation of health shocks ...........................................................127 Table 7.5 – First stage results using IV for HS1W .................................................128 Table 7.6 – First stage results using IV for HS1A ..................................................128 Table 7.7 - Impact of health shocks on income and labor and the role of microcredit using VFE................................................................................................................129 Table 7.8 - Impact of health shocks on consumption and the role of microcredit using VFE................................................................................................................129 xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 – Credit constraint and unconstraint ........................................................25 Figure 2.2 - Analytical framework of impact of microcredit on welfare..................42 Figure 2.3 - Conceptual framework of impacts of health shock ...............................44 Figure 2.4 - Logical framework on impact evaluation of credit on welfare .............49 Figure 2.5 – Analytical framework on accessibility to microcredit and its impact on welfare .......................................................................................................................50 Figure 3.1 – Microfinance providers in Vietnam ......................................................53 xii 1 CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1.1. Backgrounds Poverty reduction, access to education, clean water, sanitary, health care, etc. are the top concerned among 17 Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs) which formerly was Millennium Development Goals (MGDs). They are the important issues and attract the attention of every country, especially the developing countries like Vietnam. During the past decades, Vietnam has obtained remarkable achievements in the socio-economic development and poverty reduction. Statistics show that the poverty rate has declined from 37.4 percent in 1998 to 5.8% in 2016 (Demombynes & Vu, 2015; GSO, 2016). The report also shows that the poverty rate in 2016 in rural areas (7.5%) is nearly four times higher than that in urban areas (2%)1. The statistics indicate that a large number of rural households still live in poverty under poor living standards and suffer from the lack of socio-economic opportunities. Income of the households in rural area is rather low. In particular, a report by GSO (2016) shows that per capita income per month of the rural households is, on average, 2,437 thousand VND. In the rural, per capita income per month of the bottom quintile (the poorest) is 676 thousand VND, the second bottom (the near-poor) 1,246 thousand VND and the top quintile (the richest) 5,669 thousand VND. Therefore, it indicates that income of the poorest is around 8.4 times lower than that of the richest, which is a great gap. Consumption of the rural households is quite low. In particular, a report by GSO (2014) shows that per capita expenditure per month of the rural households is, on average, 1,609 thousand VND. More specific, per capita expenditure per month of the bottom quintile (the poorest) is 834 thousand VND, the second bottom (the near-poor) 1,154 thousand VND and the top quintile (the richest) 2,576 thousand VND, which indicates a big gap between the poorest and the richest in terms of expenditure. 1 New poverty line (Measured by income per capita per month) in 2016 is 630 and 780 thousand VND in rural and urban areas, respectively. 2 Poverty reduction, income improvement and good health, especially in the rural area, are the most concerned issues among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. In the world and in Vietnam, many programs and activities have been implemented to achieve these goals, for instance, training, agricultural extension, agricultural technology, finance, job creation, etc. Among them, credit is considered as the most important factors in income-generating activities since the rural households, especially the poor, normally face financial constraint. Without accessibility to formal credit support, poor farmers are unable to expand their production and improve their living conditions (Li et al., 2011). As above-mention, a large number of rural households in Vietnam are still living in poverty. The poor have high demand for credit; however, credit market in rural Vietnam normally faces the problem of demand excessing supply. Thenceforth, the poor have difficulty in accessing formal credit due to the lack of collateral. In rural Vietnam, formal credit is mainly provided by the Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development and Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (Ho & Duc, 2015), and recently by microfinance institutions. Inability to obtain formal credit has inhibited farmers from improving their living conditions. Therefore, farmers may rely on informal credit sources to support their production and consumption even though they must pay a much higher interest rate, which may push them deeper into ‘vicious debt circle’ with less repayment capacity. The reasons why farmers still accept the high interest rate from informal sources are its collateral-free merit and quick borrowing procedure. Since its birth, microcredit programs provide the poor with opportunities to be more accessible to formal and semi-formal credit sources (Li et al., 2011). Some merits of microcredit are collateral-free and to serve the poor. By definition, microcredit is defined as a small loan granted to the poor so that they can run production or do business to generate income and improve their well-being (Microcredit Summit, 1997). Microcredit is found by many researchers and practitioners to an effective instrument to improve well-being of the poor. 3 Therefore, this research aims to examine accessibility to microcredit and its economic impacts on welfare of rural households. Thenceforth, relevant policies will be suggested to support the poor with better access to microcredit sources and improve the effectiveness of microcredit in investment, thereby increasing their living standard. Therefore, to capture these primary research objectives, the following specific objectives will be included and analyzed: 1.2. Research problems 1.2.1. Accessibility to microcredit Morduch and Haley (2002) state that credits can help the poor to improve their living standards or at least cover their living expenses. However, a research by Brau and Woller (2004) find that the poor have difficulties in accessing to formal credit sources; particularly, the poor in the developing countries have more difficulties in accessing than those in the developed countries. In Vietnam, many rural households normally have difficulties in accessing to credit, especially poor households, households in remote areas, the minority ethnic groups, or households operating in such fields with high risk as aquaculture, etc., These households always have high demand for credit (Duong & Izumida, 2002) but they have some difficulties in borrowing from semi-formal and formal credit sources such as banks or financial institutions. Thenceforth, many households have to borrow from informal credit sources such as friends, relatives, money-lender, etc. The Government has taken a lot of effort to support the rural households with accessing to semi-formal and formal credit but the result is still rather limited. To increase efficiency of financial services as well as better serve the poor, it is essential to understand the factors that affect participants in microcredit of the rural households, thereby implying appropriate policies. Therefore, this study is conducted to investigate the factors that affect the accessibility to microcredit sources. The objective of microcredit programs is to serve the poor. However, a research by Nguyen (2008) finds that the number of poor households with access to 4 microcredit program is lower than that of the non-poor. Thenceforth, this research will investigate whether the poor households are better able to participate in microcredit programs that the non-poor. In addition, one of the attributes of microcredit programs is that the target clients are women. Therefore, this research also investigates the role of gender in participation in microcredit. In particular, this research examines whether the female household heads can have better accessibility to microcredit sources than the male counterparts. This objective is conducted using models with binary dependent variable such as Probit or Logit. Research question 1: What are determinants of accessibility to microcredit of rural households? Do poverty status and gender matter? 1.2.2. Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties Agriculture plays a crucial role in the economy of every country, especially the developing countries. In Vietnam, agricultural sector contributes nearly 33 billion USD to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, around 17-percent share (World bank, 2016). In addition, nearly half (46.8%) of the labor force in Vietnam are employed in agriculture in 2013 (World bank, 2016). Agriculture contributes to ensure food security and generate income for economic development (Datt & Ravallion, 1996). Moreover, in the developing countries, agriculture is a major income source of rural households that derives from domestic sales and export (Singh et al., 1985). Therefore, the improvement of quantity and quality of agricultural output is a focal point of the government in the developing countries (Bonnin & Turner, 2012). However, the population in the world as well as in the developing countries has increased more and more and the urbanization has been so rapid, which results in less land resource for agricultural production. Thenceforth, productivity improvement via expanding land area is no longer appropriate. Therefore, the most possible solution to enhance production output is to adopt new high-yielding technology. 5 Rice is considered one of the main staples in the world and developing countries like Vietnam. In Vietnam, total area of rice farming is around 7,790 thousand hectares with total production output of 43,609 thousand ton in 2016 (GSO, 2016), which makes rice rank the first among annual crop. Rice is the leading cultivar in terms of export volume with 4,835 thousand ton and rank second in terms of export value with 2.1 billion USD (GSO, 2016). Rice production is an important source of export earnings for rice economies like Vietnam. Therefore, enhancing quantity, quality and value of rice is the urgent and important issues. Literature documents that adoption of improved rice varieties is considered as an effective to enhance productivity due to their attributes of short duration, high yield and climate-resistance (Sall et al., 2000). However, the adoption of improved varieties may only become effective in enhancing productivity when being combined with new fertilizers and modern cultivation practices (Karanja et al., 2003). In practice, adoption of new technology normally incurs high initial cost and high risk, which inhibit the farmers’ decision toward adoption, especially the farmers with financial constraint. Several studies find that credit can facilitate the households’ investment in agricultural innovation in general and improved varieties in particular. This can be explained via two mechanisms (Eswaran & Kotwal, 1990; Zeller et al., 1997; Diagne et al., 2000): (1) Credit relaxes financial constraint of the farmers, and thereby they can invest in agriculture; (2) Credit plays a role as coping strategies with shocks, including agricultural shocks such as natural disaster, pestilent insect, etc. In fact, adoption of improved cultivar varieties may be affected by farmers’ perception, education, risk attitude, knowledge and management of agricultural extension center, and soil conditions of the area. These models are complicated cultivation practice and require more time, labor and capital than traditional strategies since farmer need to pay more for new and certified agricultural inputs such as seeds or fertilizers (Chi, 2008; Dung & Thanh, 2017). 6 The previous studies only investigate the determinants of adoption of new varieties, but do not focus on the role of credit on adopting decision. Moreover, most of the previous studies observe the behaviors of all farmers while there are very few studies that investigate in detail the behaviors of farmers with and without financial constraints or poor or non-poor status. In addition, most of previous studies only investigate the determinants of whether to adopt the improved varieties. There are still limited number of studies on the decisions of farmers in the two stages, including whether to adopt and intensity of adoption. In Vietnam, there has been no empirical studies investigating the relationship between microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties. This study examines the role of microcredit in two-stage decision of the farmers on adoption of improved varieties as well as investigates in detail the behaviors of each specific group (poor and non-poor groups). Therefore, instead of a simple model, this research employs two-stage models such as Double-Hurdle (DH) or Heckman to clarify the farmers’ adoption decisions in two stages. For robustness check, such models as Tobit are also applied for comparison. Research question 2: Does microcredit enhance the farmers’ decision on adoption of improved rice varieties in two stages, including whether to adopt and how much to adopt? 1.2.3. Impact of microcredit on households’ welfare Microcredit programs have been applied in many countries as a tool of poverty reduction and hunger eradication. The impact of microcredit on living standard of rural households has been studied by many scholars, practitioners and policymakers. However, their findings are mixed and inconsistent. Khandker (1998) and Yunus (2003) consider microcredit as a tool for the goal of fighting poverty and improving welfare. Microcredit is also found to have positive and significant effect on welfare of the rural households via improving their consumption and/or consumption (Li et al., 2011b; Mahjabeen, 2008). It is also
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